CN — LARRY ROMANOFF: 揭穿埃隆·马斯克 – 部分 10

揭穿埃隆·马斯克 – 部分 10 –Debunking Elon Musk – Part 10

Hyperloop和无聊公司 — Hyperloop and The Boring Company

译者：珍珠

WATERLOO, ON – FEB. 17:Elon Musk speaks at the Hyperloop pod competition on January 29, 2017. To accelerate the development of a functional Hyperloop prototype, a high speed transportation system that Musk proposed in 2013, SpaceX staged a student pod competition. Source

安大略省滑铁卢 – 2月17日：2017年1月29日，埃隆·马斯克在Hyperloop吊舱竞赛上发表讲话。为了加速开发马斯克于2013年提出的功能性Hyperloop原型，即高速运输系统，SpaceX举办了一场学生吊舱竞赛。来源

超级高铁 — Hyperloop

Hyperloop had grand plans to transport passengers from NYC to Washington, DC, in just 30 minutes, down from the typical journey of three hours and 30 minutes. Source

Hyperloop曾计划在30分钟内将乘客从纽约市运送到华盛顿特区，而通常的旅程需要3小时30分钟。来源

This subject is a bit complex because Hyperloop isn’t a single company or project; it is simply a concept that was explored by various parties over the years. However, to set the record straight, Elon Musk DID NOT create the “Hyperloop” concept, and he did NOT found, incorporate, or participate in, any company dedicated to building the Hyperloop concept, nor was he directly involved in any related projects. Hyperloop One/Virgin Hyperloop and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies were founded independently by others, but were ultimately unable to make the technology commercially viable. Hyperloop One quietly sold off its assets, closed its doors and went out of business in 2023.

这个话题有点复杂，因为超级高铁并不是一个单一的公司或项目；它只是一个多年来由各方探索的概念。然而，为了澄清事实，埃隆·马斯克并没有创造“超级高铁”的概念，他也没有创立、合并或参与任何致力于构建超级高铁概念的公司，也没有直接参与任何相关项目。超级高铁一号/维珍超级高铁和超级高铁运输技术公司是由其他人独立创立的，但最终无法使这项技术在商业上可行。超级高铁一号悄悄地卖掉了资产，于2023年关门停业。

超级高铁Alpha — Hyperloop Alpha

Here is a render of the transport capsule. Source

这是运输胶囊的渲染图。来源

Elon Musk produced a paper titled Hyperloop Alpha in August, 2013 on the concept of a vacuum tube train, [1] which he published on both the Tesla and SpaceX websites and otherwise promoted. In that paper, Musk identified himself as the originator and proponent of the specific technical concept of a Hyperloop, but the concept was plagiarised. Musk merely repackaged multiple existing ideas with high-profile marketing provided by the media who totally ignored all the historical precedents and credited him with “inventing” the Hyperloop.

2013年8月，埃隆·马斯克在特斯拉和SpaceX的网站上发布了一篇名为《Hyperloop Alpha》的论文，介绍了真空管列车的概念，并进行了其他方式的推广。[1]在论文中，马斯克自称为Hyperloop特定技术概念的创始人和支持者，但该概念实际上是抄袭的。马斯克只是将多个现有的想法重新包装，并由媒体进行了高调的营销，而媒体完全忽略了所有的历史先例，并称赞他“发明”了Hyperloop。

That paper was grossly over-rated, more of a thought exercise than a serious document, written at a high-school level by someone who clearly had no understanding of the scientific complexities involved. Musk seemed to approach it at almost the level of a child: “We will make a steel tube like a gas pipeline, suck out the air, and put little maglev cars in it that will go really fast.” It was neither a vision document nor an engineering proposal, and Musk clearly didn’t appreciate the problems much less offer solutions. To say that Musk’s paper was shallow, would be an understatement of some magnitude; it seriously underestimated the technical challenges of maintaining a near-vacuum over long distances, the problems of thermal expansion, safety, and much more.

这篇论文被严重高估了，它更像是一种思维练习，而不是一份严肃的文件，是由一个显然不了解所涉及的科学复杂性的人以高中水平撰写的。马斯克似乎几乎是以孩子的水平来处理它的：“我们将制作一个像天然气管道一样的钢管，抽出空气，然后把小磁悬浮汽车放进去，它们会跑得非常快。”它既不是一份愿景文件，也不是一份工程提案，马斯克显然没有意识到这些问题，更不用说提供解决方案了。说马斯克的论文浅薄，有点轻描淡写；它严重低估了长距离保持近真空的技术挑战，热膨胀、安全等问题等等。

Musk clearly understood almost nothing of consequence and simply glossed over all his misunderstandings. His “estimates” of (low) cost and (high) speed were either wishful thinking or childish foolishness. He is credited as the originator and proponent of the specific technical concepts detailed in the paper, except that those concepts were nonsense ideas that proved to be unworkable and were abandoned.

马斯克显然对后果几乎一无所知，只是简单地掩饰了他所有的误解。他对（低）成本和（高）速度的“估计”要么是一厢情愿，要么是幼稚愚蠢。他被公认为是论文中详细阐述的具体技术概念的创始人和支持者，但这些概念都是毫无意义的想法，被证明是不可行的，并被抛弃了。

Hyperloop 的实际历史 — Actual Hyperloop History

William Heath’s satirical 1829 colored etching was in reaction to a less ambitious, but still impossible, project of using a vacuum tube technique to move people between London and Edinburgh. Source: William Heath, A Futuristic Vision (etching) (London: Thos. McLean, ca. May 1829), Wellcome Library no. 37252i. Reprinted under Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 license. Source

威廉·希思（William Heath）1829年的讽刺彩色蚀刻作品是对一个不那么雄心勃勃但仍然不可能的项目——使用真空管技术在伦敦和爱丁堡之间移动人们的反应。来源：威廉·希思，《未来愿景》（蚀刻）（伦敦：托马斯·麦克莱恩，约1829年5月），惠康图书馆编号37252i。根据知识共享署名国际4.0许可协议转载。来源

Media coverage consistently attributes the Hyperloop to Elon Musk, but this attribution is deliberately false and misleading since the concept and technical DNA predate his involvement by centuries. The idea of vacuum-tube transport actually pre-dates trains and railroads. [2] The Scientific American published a vactrain proposal by Robert Goddard in 1909 in an article titled, “The Limit of Rapid Transit”. [3] The Frenchman Jean Bertin floated the idea of an Aérotrain in the 1950s. [4] There was the Swissmetro project in the 1990s, and researchers from MIT tried to bring this dream to fruition, but abandoned it as unworkable; see the BBC article titled “High-Speed Pipe Dreams“. [5] Yet Musk persisted (and still persists) – with full media support – in the false claim that “I Invented the Hyperloop”.

媒体报道一直将超级高铁归功于埃隆·马斯克，但这种归功是故意误导的，因为其概念和技术核心早在马斯克参与之前几个世纪就已存在。真空管运输的概念实际上早于火车和铁路。[2]《科学美国人》在1909年发表了一篇题为《快速交通的极限》的文章，其中罗伯特·戈达德提出了真空管列车的设想。[3]20世纪50年代，法国人让·贝尔坦提出了空中列车的构想。[4]20世纪90年代有瑞士地铁项目，麻省理工学院的研究人员试图将这一梦想变为现实，但因不可行而放弃；见英国广播公司题为《高速管道梦》的文章。[5]然而，马斯克在媒体的全力支持下，一直（并且现在仍然）坚持错误地声称“我发明了超级高铁”。

“The idea dates back to 1799, when British inventor George Medhurst patented his “atmospheric railway” to conduct commuters along pressurized pipes under London. After Medhurst’s original invention, pneumatic railways were built in Ireland, the UK, France and New York – all before the end of the 19th century. As well as experimental passenger trains, smaller tube systems were created to transport mail, messages, parts for factories and medical documentation in hospitals. There have been numerous attempts to build Hyperloop-style systems since 1900, from researchers at MIT in the 1990s to a transportation startup called ET3, which designed a system for smaller car-sized pods in the early 2000s.”。[6]

“这一想法可追溯至1799年，当时英国发明家乔治·梅德赫斯特（George Medhurst）为其‘气压铁路’申请了专利，旨在通过伦敦地下加压管道运送通勤者。在梅德赫斯特的原始发明之后，爱尔兰、英国、法国和纽约都建造了气动铁路——这一切都发生在19世纪末之前。除了实验性的客运列车外，还建造了较小的管道系统，用于运输邮件、信息、工厂零件和医院的医疗文件。自1900年以来，人们多次尝试建造类似超级高铁的系统，从20世纪90年代麻省理工学院的研究人员到21世纪初一家名为ET3的交通初创公司，后者设计了一种用于较小汽车尺寸吊舱的系统。[6]

“In 1844, Medhurst built a railway station (for passenger carriages) in London that relied on pneumatics. Throughout the mid-1850s, several more pneumatic railways were built in Dublin, London, and Paris. The London Pneumatic Despatch system was meant to transport parcels, but it was large enough to carry people, too. To mark its opening, the Duke of Buckingham traveled through it in 1865.”

“1844年，梅德赫斯特在伦敦建造了一个依赖气动技术的火车站（用于客运车厢）。在整个19世纪50年代中期，都柏林、伦敦和巴黎又建造了几条气动铁路。伦敦气动调度系统本意是用来运输包裹的，但它足够大，也可以载人。为了纪念它的开通，白金汉公爵于1865年乘坐它旅行。”

The Beach Pneumatic Transit, which operated in Manhattan from 1870 to 1873, was New York City’s earliest subway predecessor. Designed by Alfred Ely Beach, it had one stop and a one-car shuttle that used compressed air to move riders. Source

1870年至1873年间，曼哈顿运营的Beach Pneumatic Transit是纽约市最早的地铁前身。该系统由Alfred Ely Beach设计，仅设有一站，并采用压缩空气驱动的单车穿梭，运送乘客

“In the mid-1860s, South London constructed the Crystal Palace atmospheric railway, which ran through a park. A fan, which measured 22 feet in diameter, propelled the train. On return journeys, the fan’s blades reversed, sucking the carriage backwards. The Beach Pneumatic Transit, which operated in Manhattan from 1870 to 1873, was New York City’s earliest subway predecessor. Designed by Alfred Ely Beach, it had one stop and a one-car shuttle that used compressed air to move riders.”[7]

“19世纪60年代中期，南伦敦建造了水晶宫大气铁路，该铁路穿过一个公园。一个直径22英尺的风扇推动火车前进。在返程时，风扇的叶片反转，将车厢向后吸。1870年至1873年在曼哈顿运营的海滩气动交通是纽约市最早的地铁前身。由阿尔弗雷德·埃利·海滩设计，它有一个站点和一个单节车厢的穿梭列车，使用压缩空气来移动乘客。” [7]

“Projects like ET3 (founded 1997) actively promoted evacuated tube transport before Musk’s paper. Physicist James R. Powell (co-inventor of the maglev) published vacuum tube maglev concepts in the 2000s. There was also a large amount of what we might term “Pre-existing Interest”: the ET3, many academic papers, and articles by futurists kept the idea alive long before Elon Musk appeared as a sudden “visionary”. As well, the existence of Shanghai’s Maglev and great strides in materials science created a fertile ground for further examination of the concept.”

“在马斯克的论文之前，像ET3（成立于1997年）这样的项目积极推广了真空管道运输。物理学家詹姆斯·R·鲍威尔（磁浮技术的共同发明者）在2000年代发表了真空管道磁浮概念。此外，还有大量我们可能称之为‘既存兴趣’的东西：ET3、许多学术论文和未来学家的文章，在埃隆·马斯克突然成为‘有远见的人’之前，这些想法就早已存在。此外，上海磁浮技术的存在以及材料科学的巨大进步为进一步研究这一概念创造了肥沃的土壤。”

Hyperloop是政治性的，不是科学性的 — The Hyperloop was Political, not Scientific

Realistically, the Hyperloop is just hype. The concept might be technically feasible. But Mr. Musk’s proposal will cost a lot more and do a lot less than he claims it will. Source

实际上，Hyperloop 只是炒作。这个概念在技术上可能是可行的。但是，马斯克的提议将花费比他声称的要多得多，而实际效果却要少得多。来源

The official narrative was that Musk positioned the hyperloop as a “futuristic alternative” to California’s high-speed rail project. But Musk is on record as stating that he wanted to kill the California high-speed rail project, and promoted the Hyperloop only as a means to accomplish this.

官方说法是，马斯克将超级高铁定位为加州高速铁路项目的“未来替代方案”。但马斯克曾公开表示，他希望扼杀加州高速铁路项目，并推广超级高铁只是作为实现这一目标的一种手段。

Musk’s own tweets and interviews from 2013-2014 are damning. He openly called the HSR project “one of the most expensive per mile” and “the slowest bullet train,” framing Hyperloop as cheaper/faster. The timing was strategic too – releasing his “white paper” just as the California HSR faced scrutiny. Even the paper itself contained direct cost comparisons positioning Hyperloop as superior. But the most telling proof is Musk admitting in 2020 he “wanted to show it could be done better”, and he admitted in an interview that his purpose in releasing the paper was to “shame” California into abandoning its HSR project. In fact, the evidence is clear that Musk’s intention with his paper and the attending publicity were strategically designed to undermine California’s HSR. Musk’s actions were not “visionary”; they were deliberate sabotage. Here is an important article that I strongly recommend reading by anyone interested in the concept. The article is easy to read, and nicely outlines the major issues.[8]

马斯克2013年至2014年的推文和采访具有决定性。他公开称高铁项目“每英里成本最高”和“最慢的子弹列车”，将超级高铁定位为更便宜/更快。时机也很有策略——就在加州高铁面临审查之际，他发布了“白皮书”。甚至白皮书本身也包含了直接的成本比较，将超级高铁定位为更优越。但最有说服力的证据是马斯克在2020年承认他“想证明它可以做得更好”，并在一次采访中承认，他发布白皮书的目的是“羞辱”加州放弃其高铁项目。事实上，证据很明确，马斯克发布白皮书和随之而来的宣传是战略性的，旨在破坏加州的高铁项目。马斯克的行为不是“有远见”；而是蓄意破坏。这是一篇我强烈推荐给任何对这个概念感兴趣的人阅读的重要文章。这篇文章易于阅读，很好地概述了主要问题。 [8]

Alon Levy, a transportation economist, argued that the Hyperloop was a “pipe dream” designed to sabotage HSR by diverting attention and resources. He wrote, “The Hyperloop proposal is a specific form of lobbying by Elon Musk against high-speed rail … It’s not a real proposal. It’s a PR stunt.” Another transportation critic wrote, “Musk used Hyperloop to poison the conversation around high-speed rail … It gave politicians an excuse to avoid funding real infrastructure.” This wasn’t innovation advocacy; it was infrastructure disruption via a glossy, unbuildable concept. The Hyperloop saga remains a case study in how tech celebrity can be leveraged to influence public policy – even without delivering a functional product.

交通经济学家阿隆·利维认为，超级高铁是一个“白日梦”，旨在通过转移注意力和资源来破坏高铁。他写道：“超级高铁提案是埃隆·马斯克反对高铁的一种特定游说形式……它不是一个真正的提案。它是一个公关噱头。”另一位交通评论家写道：“马斯克利用超级高铁毒化了围绕高铁的对话……它给了政客们一个借口，以避免资助真正的基础设施。”这不是创新倡导；而是通过一个光鲜亮丽但无法实现的概念来破坏基础设施。超级高铁传奇仍然是研究如何利用科技名人影响公共政策的一个案例——即使没有交付功能产品。

Musk didn’t just “position” Hyperloop as an alternative – he weaponised it to derail California’s high-speed rail project. The evidence shows:

马斯克不仅将Hyperloop定位为一种替代方案，还将其作为武器，破坏了加州的高速铁路项目。证据表明：

Explicit Intent: Musk admitted Hyperloop was designed to shame and derail HSR proponents.

明确意图：马斯克承认，超级高铁的设计是为了羞辱和破坏高铁支持者。

Strategic Timing: Launched during HSR’s most vulnerable political moment.

战略时机：在HSR最脆弱的政治时刻推出。

Rhetorical Sabotage: Framed HSR as wasteful/outdated to sway public opinion.

修辞破坏：将高铁（HSR）描述为浪费/过时，以影响公众舆论。

Real-World Impact: Sowed doubt about HSR, delaying progress while Hyperloop itself failed.

实际影响：对高铁（HSR）产生怀疑，导致项目进展延迟，同时超级高铁（Hyperloop）项目本身也以失败告终。

唯一的幸存者 — The Sole Survivor

There is an apparent agreement to build a real hyperloop in Italy, but only for freight. [9][10] However, this is over-hyped because the agreement is in stages: a feasibility study which, if successful, would lead to a design phase which, if successful, would lead to a prototype which, if built, would lead to a “field test”. And still no hyperloop. That is a long way from a contract to build a functioning system.

意大利显然已达成协议，将建造一条真正的超级高铁，但仅用于货运。[9][10]然而，这被过度炒作，因为该协议是分阶段的：可行性研究，如果成功，将进入设计阶段，如果成功，将进入原型阶段，如果建成，将进行“现场测试”。但仍然没有超级高铁。距离签订建造一个功能系统的合同还有很长的路要走。

Hyperloop’s collapse wasn’t due to lack of effort but to fundamental physics gaps in Musk’s schoolboy vision. For one thing, solar-panel-topped pipes expand and contract dramatically, risking vacuum breaches. There was no safety protocol, no credible plan for decompression emergencies at high speeds, and no idea how to maintain a near-vacuum over a 600-Km length. Plus, Musk’s cost estimate of only 10% of HSR was delusionary, as was his lack of appreciation of operating costs both to maintain a vacuum and to achieve very high speeds.

Hyperloop的失败并非因为缺乏努力，而是因为马斯克学生时代的设想中存在根本性的物理漏洞。首先，顶部装有太阳能电池板的管道会急剧膨胀和收缩，存在真空破裂的风险。没有安全协议，没有可靠的高速减压应急计划，也不知道如何在600公里长的管道上保持近真空状态。此外，马斯克估计的成本仅为高铁的10%，这是妄想，因为他没有考虑到维持真空和实现极高速度的运营成本。

无聊公司 — The Boring Company

If nothing else, the lighting is particularly impressive. Source

至少，这里的灯光特别令人印象深刻. 源头

Elon Musk founded something he called “The Boring Company” in 2016, which proposed the construction of underground tunnels for carrying vehicle traffic, similar in concept to an overhead roadway, but underground. The company has completed only one project, a 1.7-mile tunnel under Las Vegas (the Loop) that opened in 2021. It is merely a roadway at normal air pressure using ordinary Tesla autos to carry passengers between various halls of the Las Vegas convention center.

2016年，埃隆·马斯克创立了他所谓的“无聊公司”，该公司提议建设地下隧道，用于承载车辆交通，其概念类似于高架道路，但位于地下。该公司仅完成了一个项目，即2021年在拉斯维加斯地下1.7英里处开通的隧道（The Loop）。它只是一条在正常气压下的道路，使用普通的特斯拉汽车在拉斯维加斯会议中心的不同大厅之间运送乘客。

There is no sensible reason for this company’s constructions to be referred to as a “Loop”. Musk is clearly trying to confuse a simple auto tunnel with whatever magic remains of the Hyperloop concept. He still tries to market these underground tunnels trading on the “Hyperloop” name for brand recognition, and sometimes presenting these “Tesla Tunnels” as “scaled-down” versions of a Hyperloop, but that is just fraudulent marketing. It is due to this false marketing thrust that much of the mass media and the public at large still don’t understand and cannot differentiate these ordinary tunnels from high-speed vacuum train travel. This is what some observers have termed “leveraging buzz”.

这家公司的建筑被称为“Loop”没有任何合理的理由。马斯克显然是想把一个简单的汽车隧道和Hyperloop概念的任何神奇之处混为一谈。他仍然试图以“Hyperloop”的名义推销这些地下隧道，以获得品牌认可，有时还会把这些“特斯拉隧道”称为Hyperloop的“缩小版”，但这只是欺诈营销。正是由于这种虚假的营销推动，许多大众媒体和公众仍然不理解，也无法区分这些普通隧道和高速真空列车旅行。这就是一些观察家所说的“利用炒作”。

Musk heavily promoted (and promised) this concept as “high-speed transit”, but it consists only of ordinary Teslas driving slowly underground, plagued by safety issues and trespassers. In a 2016 statement, and also on the company website, Musk claimed “The Boring Company Will Solve Traffic”, that his tunnels would “end traffic”, [11] but this is just more Elon Musk delusional nonsense. He did manage to drill one of his tunnels under Las Vegas, but it is just a subway without a train, moves far fewer people than would a subway, and is generally regarded as a useless idea. The UK Independent published an article titled “Elon Musk’s ‘Vegas Loop’ called a ‘death trap’.” [12][13] And another titled, “Two of Elon Musk’s Terrible Ideas Both Flopped in Las Vegas This Week“. [14] One of the reasons for the death trap adjective is that the tunnels lack emergency exits, ventilation, and evacuation protocols. The narrow, single-lane design prevents rescue access during fires or accidents, and have no procedures (or, apparently, possibilities) for rapid mass evacuation in case of fire. [15] And, if you are riding in Teslas, that risk of fire is always present.

马斯克大力推广（并承诺）这一概念为“高速交通”，但它实际上只是普通的特斯拉汽车在地下缓慢行驶，饱受安全问题和非法侵入者的困扰。在2016年的一份声明中，以及在公司网站上，马斯克声称“The Boring Company Will Solve Traffic”，他的隧道将“结束交通”，但这只是埃隆·马斯克的妄想。他确实设法在拉斯维加斯下钻了一条隧道，但它只是一条没有列车的地铁，运送的人数远少于地铁，通常被认为是一个无用的想法。英国《独立报》发表了一篇题为“Elon Musk的‘拉斯维加斯环线’被称为‘死亡陷阱’”的文章。[12][13]另一篇题为“本周，埃隆·马斯克的两个可怕想法在拉斯维加斯都失败了”。[14]死亡陷阱形容词的原因之一是隧道缺乏紧急出口、通风和疏散协议。狭窄的单行道设计在火灾或事故发生时无法救援，并且在发生火灾时没有快速大规模疏散的程序（或显然没有可能性）。[15]而且，如果你乘坐特斯拉，火灾的风险始终存在。

Musk sold the idea to Las Vegas on the promise of autonomous pods in the tunnel moving at speeds of ~150 mph, when in real life the human drivers can average only about 35-40 mph. And the maximum throughput is only around 1,200 passengers per hour, far below the 4,500/hour that Musk was claiming, and very far below the passenger capacity of a subway system that can easily move 20,000+ passengers/hour. Even worse, only 800 people can actually be transported per hour due to fire safety regulations.[16]

马斯克向拉斯维加斯推销这个想法时承诺，隧道中的自动驾驶吊舱将以约150英里/小时的速度移动，而现实生活中，人类驾驶员的平均速度只有约35-40英里/小时。最大吞吐量仅为每小时约1200名乘客，远低于马斯克声称的每小时4500名乘客，也远低于地铁系统的载客量，地铁系统可以轻松运送20,000+名乘客/小时。更糟糕的是，由于消防安全规定，每小时实际只能运送800人。[16]

The performance of this Musk project is totally underwhelming. It was advertised as a simple and more affordable point-to-point underground transit system, but it hasn’t proven to be simple, and other systems are more affordable while carrying far more traffic. Using Tesla vehicles as “pods” is a cost-cutting stunt, not a scalable solution, and the system itself has no unique value. Musk’s Las Vegas “Loop” operates well below initial promises and with huge congestion during peak times or events.

这个马斯克项目的表现完全令人失望。它被宣传为一个简单且更实惠的点对点地下交通系统，但事实证明它并不简单，其他系统在承载更多交通量的同时成本更低。使用特斯拉汽车作为“吊舱”是一种削减成本的噱头，而不是可扩展的解决方案，而且该系统本身没有独特价值。马斯克的拉斯维加斯“环线”运行远低于最初的承诺，在高峰时段或活动期间交通拥堵严重。

Prufrock 镗孔机 — The Prufrock Boring Machines

One of Elon Musk’s signature behavior patterns is to leverage his social media access and his mass media supporters to create huge amounts of public confusion to mask the constantly-appearing negatives in his various enterprises. He has done this repeatedly with his Boring Company, attempting to mask (or drown out) all the negative news about the Las Vegas project – and lack of other projects – with reams of news, some true but mostly false, about the machines that drill the tunnels. It is a simple (and cheap) way to take the heat off a poorly-conceived, expensive, and only marginally successful project. Since Musk has taken us there himself, let’s have a look at these boring machines that create the tunnels for his low-speed, fire-prone Teslas to navigate.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的一种标志性行为模式是利用其社交媒体渠道和大众媒体支持者，制造大量的公众困惑，以掩盖其各项企业中不断出现的负面消息。他多次利用其镗孔公司（Boring Company）这样做，试图用大量关于隧道挖掘机器的新闻（有些真实，但大多数是虚假的）来掩盖（或掩盖掉）有关拉斯维加斯项目以及缺乏其他项目的所有负面消息。这是一种简单（且廉价）的方式，可以为一个构思不佳、成本高昂且仅取得微小成功的项目降温。既然马斯克亲自带我们了解了这些，那么就让我们来看看这些为他低速、易起火的特斯拉汽车挖掘隧道的镗孔机器吧。

First on our list would be this hagiographic claim: “Elon Musk has reduced tunneling costs by 95%.” Wow. People have been drilling expensive underground tunnels for hundreds of years, and very expensive subway tunnels for at least 150 years, and no one ever thought to ask “Is there a cheaper way to do this?” And then along comes a little Jewish sex pervert from South Africa who can drill tunnels for only 5% of the usual cost. Unfortunately, that’s not brilliant science but fraudulent marketing. Most subway and other tunnels are 26 or 28 feet in diameter, while Elon Musk’s tunnels are only 12 feet. To save you the πr² math, a 12-ft tunnel has 85% less area than the larger ones, and removes 85% less material, so there is 85% of the 95% saving. Also, tiny boring machines are cheap; very large ones are horribly expensive, and that accounts for most of the missing 10%. So, it seems that Elon Musk, the great innovator, hasn’t actually innovated anything.

首先，我们的名单上会有这个神圣的声明：“埃隆·马斯克将隧道成本降低了95%。”哇。人们钻昂贵的地下隧道已经有几百年了，钻非常昂贵的地铁隧道至少也有150年了，但从来没有人想过问“有没有更便宜的方法来做这件事？”然后，一个来自南非的小犹太性变态出现了，他钻隧道的成本只有通常成本的5%。不幸的是，这不是辉煌的科学，而是欺诈性的营销。大多数地铁和其他隧道的直径是26或28英尺，而埃隆·马斯克的隧道只有12英尺。为了省去πr²的数学运算，一个12英尺的隧道比更大的隧道面积少了85%，移除的材料少了85%，所以节省了95%中的85%。此外，小型钻孔机很便宜；非常大的钻孔机非常昂贵，这占了缺失的10%的大部分。所以，伟大的创新者埃隆·马斯克似乎并没有真正创新任何东西。

Next, tunnel-boring machines are rated on the speed with which they can drill underground tunnels, measured by meters per day or miles per week. The speed obviously depends on whether you are drilling through granite or beach sand, but let’s ignore that. Elon Musk repeatedly claims his Prufrock boring machine has a capability of drilling 1 mile of tunnel per week, and at one time he even claimed 7 miles per day. However, he refuses to provide any validation and his claims remain unverified despite years of operation. This demonstrates perfectly Musk’s persistent pattern of extravagant promises vs reality, with constant shifting of goalposts where he then promised 1/10th of walking speed as an “achievement”.

接下来，隧道掘进机的速度评级是基于它们在地下隧道钻探的速度，以每天米数或每周英里数来衡量。速度显然取决于你是在钻探花岗岩还是海滩沙，但我们忽略这一点。埃隆·马斯克多次声称他的Prufrock隧道掘进机每周能够钻探1英里的隧道，并且他曾一度声称每天能够钻探7英里。然而，他拒绝提供任何验证，尽管已经运营多年，他的说法仍未得到证实。这完美地展示了马斯克一贯的奢侈承诺与现实的对比，他不断改变目标，然后承诺以步行速度的十分之一作为“成就”。

In May of 2025, Musk “confirmed” Prufrock’s tunneling speed at “over 1 mile per week”, framing this as an “historic milestone”, ignoring the fact that it fell drastically short of all his earlier promises. But where are we in the real world? Well, Musk never quite reached his promises. In fact, to say that he fell short would be a bit of an understatement, since the 1.7-mile tunnel in Las Vegas took 18 months to complete. That doesn’t quite fit the one mile per day claim, much less the 7 miles per day. Musk claimed his Prufrock machine was 8-14 times faster than traditional boring machines, but refused to provide any verified data. And, in a damning comparison in Las Vegas, his Boring Company managed only 20 meters/week while industry leader Herrenknecht does that daily. If you’re interested in the math, Musk “confirmed” a tunneling speed of about 1,600 meters per day (1 mile) but he actually achieved only 20 meters.

2025年5月，马斯克“确认”Prufrock的隧道挖掘速度“超过每周1英里”，并将其称为“历史性里程碑”，却无视这一速度远低于他早先的所有承诺。但我们在现实世界中的进展如何呢？好吧，马斯克从未完全兑现过他的承诺。事实上，说他未能达到预期有点轻描淡写，因为拉斯维加斯那条1.7英里的隧道花了18个月才完工。这与他宣称的每天一英里的进度并不完全相符，更别提每天7英里的进度了。马斯克声称他的Prufrock机器比传统钻孔机快8到14倍，但拒绝提供任何经过验证的数据。而且，在拉斯维加斯的一个令人失望的对比中，他的Boring Company每周仅能挖掘20米，而行业领导者海瑞克公司却能每天完成这一进度。如果你对数据感兴趣，马斯克“确认”的隧道挖掘速度约为每天1600米（1英里），但他实际上只达到了20米。

避免炒作 — Deflecting Hype

Billionaire Elon Musk revealed yesterday that “this year – 2023” he will equip the first human being with brain implants from his company Neuralink, whose technology has just been approved in the United States. Source

亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）昨日透露，“今年——2023年”，他将通过其公司Neuralink为第一个人类配备大脑植入物，该公司的技术刚刚在美国获得批准。来源

I mentioned above that one of Elon Musk’s signature behaviors is to leverage his social media access and his mass media supporters to create huge amounts of public confusion to mask all the constantly-appearing negatives in his various enterprises. This pattern mirrors Musk’s Robotaxi/Neuralink launches—diverting attention from crashes, deaths and underperformance. When his Robotaxi or Tesla’s so-called “Self-Driving” software was being pilloried in the media, Musk suddenly made grand and false “revelations” about his Neuralink developments or a SpaceX Mars claim, done entirely to deflect public attention from those failures.

我在上文提到，埃隆·马斯克的标志性行为之一是利用他的社交媒体渠道和大众媒体支持者制造大量的公众困惑，以掩盖其各种企业中不断出现的负面消息。这种模式在马斯克的Robotaxi/Neuralink发布中得到了体现——将注意力从车祸、死亡和表现不佳上转移开。当他的Robotaxi或特斯拉所谓的“自动驾驶”软件在媒体上受到嘲笑时，马斯克突然对其Neuralink的发展或SpaceX的火星计划做出了宏大而虚假的“启示”，完全是为了转移公众对这些失败的注意力。

When his Boring Company began receiving bad press for its failures, Musk suddenly claimed TBC would develop hyperloop systems (600 mph pods), a typical PR pivot from his failing transit tunnels. Well-financed competitors like Hyperloop One had already tested similar tech and failed, and TBC lacks capital or expertise to attempt such a venture. Musk’s announcements are 100% PR diversion. His pattern of overpromising—especially regarding this new Hyperloop pivot is merely a distraction from TBC’s underwhelming Vegas Loop. Musk’s TBC Hyperloop announcement is a survival tactic, not a credible plan. This fits perfectly Elon Musk’s pattern of distraction: His Hyperloop announcements consistently coincide with TBC’s setbacks.

当他的Boring Company开始因其失败而受到负面报道时，马斯克突然声称TBC将开发超级高铁系统（600英里/小时的吊舱），这是他失败的交通隧道的一个典型的公关转折。像Hyperloop One这样资金充足的竞争对手已经测试了类似的技术，但失败了，而TBC缺乏资金或专业知识来尝试这样的冒险。马斯克的公告完全是公关转移。他过度承诺的模式——尤其是关于这个新的超级高铁转折——只是转移人们对TBC令人失望的拉斯维加斯环线的注意力。马斯克的TBC超级高铁公告是一种生存策略，而不是一个可信的计划。这完全符合埃隆·马斯克的转移注意力模式：他的超级高铁公告总是与TBC的挫折相吻合。

As the Financial Times wrote on TBC’s strategy in 2024, “Musk’s projects follow a pattern: sell a sci-fi vision, underdeliver with off-the-shelf tech, then pivot to the next shiny object when scrutiny hits.”

正如《金融时报》在2024年对TBC战略的报道中所写，“马斯克的项目遵循一种模式：兜售科幻愿景，用现成的技术兑现不足，然后在受到审查时转向下一个闪亮的目标。”

预后 — Prognosis

Technically, TBC’s Vegas track record doesn’t inspire confidence. The existing Las Vegas Loop operates at very low speeds with human drivers, not the promised 150 mph autonomy, and with serious problems. The Prufrock boring machines have unproven capabilities and appear to be substandard. There have been no material changes to justify optimism. Sub-surface tunnels are not new technology, having been built for more than 200 years, and using Tesla cars is just a stunt. The Boring Company’s prognosis remains highly uncertain; with what we could term “significant contradictions” between its fantasy claims and operational realities. [17][18] One observer termed TBC as “A Tunnel Vision with No Light at the End”. Another said TBC’s biggest problem is not to drill more tunnels but to dig itself out of the hole it’s already in.

从技术角度来看，TBC在拉斯维加斯的业绩记录并不令人鼓舞。现有的拉斯维加斯环线由人类司机驾驶，速度非常低，并未达到承诺的150英里/小时的自主驾驶速度，且存在严重问题。Prufrock隧道掘进机的性能未经证实，似乎也不达标。目前没有实质性的变化来证明乐观情绪的合理性。地下隧道并非新技术，已有200多年的历史，使用特斯拉汽车只是噱头。Boring Company的预测仍然存在高度不确定性；其幻想主张与运营现实之间存在我们可称之为“重大矛盾”的情况。[17][18]一位观察者将TBC称为“一条没有尽头的隧道愿景”。另一位观察者表示，TBC最大的问题不是挖掘更多隧道，而是如何摆脱已经陷入的困境。

Moreover, TBC’s flaws are structural, not temporary. There have been no significant developments or breakthroughs in autonomy or tunnel speed after 8 years of operation, and the “Death trap” incidents and broken promises have seriously deterred municipal customers. The bottom line is that TBC survives only as a Musk-subsidized vanity project, not a transformative transit solution. The company has a brief cash lifeline that buys a bit of time, but without delivering safe, scalable tunnels beyond Vegas conventions, collapse is inevitable. The most likely scenario is that TBC will be absorbed into SpaceX or quietly shuttered by 2027, and Hyperloop will join Tesla, Robotaxis and Neuralink in the graveyard of overhyped Musk ventures. For now, it survives—but barely.

此外，TBC的缺陷是结构性的，而非暂时的。在运营8年后，自主性或隧道速度方面没有取得重大进展或突破，“死亡陷阱”事件和失信严重阻碍了市政客户。最重要的是，TBC只能作为马斯克补贴的虚荣项目而生存，而不是一种变革性的交通解决方案。该公司有一条短暂的现金生命线，可以争取一些时间，但如果不提供超出拉斯维加斯会议的安全、可扩展的隧道，崩溃是不可避免的。最有可能的情况是，TBC将在2027年被SpaceX收购或悄然关闭，而超级高铁将加入特斯拉、Robotaxis和Neuralink，成为马斯克过度炒作企业的坟墓。目前，它勉强生存着。

The $200 million lifeline in funds diverted from SpaceX suggests TBC cannot survive independently. The company has no major revenue streams beyond Vegas, and all other projects like the Chicago O’Hare tunnel, D.C.-Baltimore loop, and L.A. Dugout Loop were canceled due to regulatory hurdles or feasibility issues. Or lack of interest.

从SpaceX转移的2亿美元资金表明，TBC无法独立生存。除了拉斯维加斯，该公司没有其他主要收入来源，而芝加哥奥黑尔隧道、D.C.-巴尔的摩环线和洛杉矶杜格特环线等所有其他项目都因监管障碍或可行性问题而被取消。或者缺乏兴趣。

Musk managed to raise $6.75B in investment in 2022, which helped to sustain the operation and prevent it from having to close its doors, but revenue is minimal. Another part of what appears to be almost an obsession with fraudulent valuations, that ~$7 billion investment magically created a sudden increase in the “value” of The Boring Company from about $5 billion to a surprising $56.75B. How do we turn a $7 billion investment into a value of about $55 billion? Simply by saying so; no accounting evidence required. Musk is famous for this: Tesla, Neuralink, xAI …

2022年，马斯克成功筹集了67.5亿美元的投资，这有助于维持公司的运营，防止其关门大吉，但收入微乎其微。另一部分似乎是对欺诈性估值的痴迷，约70亿美元的投资神奇地将The Boring Company的“价值”从约50亿美元突然增加到惊人的567.5亿美元。我们如何将70亿美元的投资转化为约550亿美元的价值？只需这么说；不需要会计证据。马斯克以特斯拉、Neuralink、xAI等公司而闻名…

Musk has made continued intermittent noises about “exciting new projects” in other cities, but none of that was real and, at the time of writing in July 2025, there were no live prospects on the horizon. The Las Vegas project has requested permits for some additional stations, but physical progress appears minimal beyond the permit requests. Indeed, Elon Musk appears to have given up on the domestic US market and accompanied Donald Trump to Dubai in the hope of selling his “tunnel-vision” somewhere in the Middle East. Again, some noise, but no more.

马斯克（Musk）一直在断断续续地谈论在其他城市开展“令人兴奋的新项目”，但这些都不是真的，而且截至2025年7月撰写本文时，前景仍不明朗。拉斯维加斯项目已申请了一些额外车站的许可，但除了许可申请外，实际进展似乎微乎其微。事实上，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）似乎已经放弃了美国国内市场，并陪同唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）前往迪拜，希望在中东某地出售他的“隧道愿景”。同样，只是有些动静，但仅此而已。

It was reported in February of 2025 that Musk’s Boring Company signed an agreement with Dubai to construct a similar tunnel system as Las Vegas, with a capacity of more than 100,000 travelers per hour. [1] One article said the system was already under construction, but there is no evidence of that, the timeline was suspiciously vague, and current information is that the Dubai project is effectively shelved, though not officially canceled. Dubai will almost certainly join Miami and Chicago as abandoned concepts. The project is typical for Elon Musk: A “vaporware” pattern. Big announcements of grandiose projects, vague timelines, reliance on unproven tech, and quiet deprioritisation when new opportunities arise.

据报道，2025年2月，马斯克的Boring Company与迪拜签署了一项协议，计划在迪拜建设一个与拉斯维加斯类似的隧道系统，该系统的运输能力为每小时超过10万名旅客。[1]一篇文章称该系统已经在建设中，但没有证据表明这一点，时间表可疑地模糊，目前的信息是迪拜项目实际上已被搁置，尽管尚未正式取消。迪拜几乎肯定会像迈阿密和芝加哥一样，成为一个被遗弃的概念。该项目是埃隆·马斯克的典型项目：一种“虚幻”模式。大张旗鼓地宣布宏伟的项目，模糊的时间表，依赖未经证实的技术，以及在新机会出现时悄然降低优先级。

为了生存而偷钱 — Stealing Money to Survive

Source

来源

There are two items relating to TBC revenue that received little or no attention from the mass media, both of which might easily be categorized as criminal fraud. The first was that Elon Musk diverted $200 million from SpaceX to TBC to drill “something” for SpaceX, this done without a tender and the necessity of which was questionable at best. The issue is that this would have been DoD funds that were transferred to TBC as a temporary lifeline, and that means Elon Musk was funneling taxpayer money into one of his failing private companies. [19][20] Interestingly, the only persons who seemed to notice and complain were shareholders of SpaceX. The US government, who should have been screaming at this diversion, were apparently asleep. [21] The other is that TBC was paid some millions by Tesla to drill a completely unnecessary tunnel from the factory as a way to move Cybertrucks. [22] This means that Musk was diverting funds owned by Tesla’s shareholders to prop up one of his private ventures.

有两项与TBC收入有关的事项几乎没有引起大众媒体的关注，这两项都很容易被归类为刑事欺诈。第一项是，埃隆·马斯克从SpaceX向TBC转移了2亿美元，为SpaceX钻探“某物”，此举未经招标，其必要性充其量也值得怀疑。问题在于，这本来是国防部的资金，作为临时生命线转移到TBC，这意味着埃隆·马斯克正在将纳税人的钱投入到他失败的私营公司之一。[19][20]有趣的是，似乎唯一注意到并抱怨的人是SpaceX的股东。美国政府本应对这种转移大呼小叫，但显然却睡着了。[21]另一项是，特斯拉向TBC支付了数百万美元，用于从工厂钻探一条完全不必要的隧道，作为移动Cybertrucks的一种方式。[22]这意味着马斯克正在转移特斯拉股东拥有的资金，以支持他的私营企业之一。

Next Essay: OpenAI

下一篇论文：OpenAI

Mr. Romanoff’s writing has been translated into 34 languages and his articles posted on more than 150 foreign-language news and politics websites in more than 30 countries, as well as more than 100 English language platforms. Larry Romanoff is a retired management consultant and businessman. He has held senior executive positions in international consulting firms, and owned an international import-export business. He has been a visiting professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University, presenting case studies in international affairs to senior EMBA classes. Mr. Romanoff lives in Shanghai and is currently writing a series of ten books generally related to China and the West. He is one of the contributing authors to Cynthia McKinney’s new anthology ‘When China Sneezes’. (Chap. 2 — Dealing with Demons).

罗曼诺夫先生的作品已被翻译成34种语言，他的文章被发布在30多个国家的150多个外文新闻和政治网站上，以及100多个英文平台上。拉里·罗曼诺夫是一位退休的管理顾问和商人。他曾在国际咨询公司担任高级管理职务，并拥有一家国际进出口企业。他曾担任上海复旦大学的客座教授，为高级EMBA课程讲授国际事务案例研究。罗曼诺夫先生现居上海，目前正在撰写一系列共十本书，总体上涉及中国与西方。他是辛西娅·麦金尼新选集《当中国打喷嚏》（第2章——与恶魔打交道）的特约作者之一。

His full archive can be seen at

他的全部档案可以在以下网址查看：

https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/ + https://www.moonofshanghai.com/

He can be contacted at:

他的全部档案可以在以下网址查看：

2186604556@qq.com

NOTES
注释
NOTES: Part 10
注释：第10部分

[1] Hyperloop Alpha
[1] 超级高铁Alpha
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf
[2] The Hyperloop: A 200-Year History of Hype and Failure
[2] 超级高铁：200年的炒作与失败史
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the-hyperloop-a-200-year-history-of-hype-and-failure/
[3] The Limit of Rapid Transit
[3] 快速交通的局限性
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-limit-of-rapid-transit/
[4] Jean Bertin’s Aérotrain
[4] 吉恩•贝尔坦的《空中列车》
https://www.midnight-trains.com/post/jean-bertins-aerotrain
[5] High-Speed Pipe Dreams
[5] 高速管道梦
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20120601-high-speed-pipedreams
[6] A scramble of innovation that could make the Hyperloop train a reality
[6] 一系列创新，让超级高铁成为现实
https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Insights/Publications/Hyperloop-Crowdsourced-vs.-In-House-Strategies.html
https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Insights/Publications/超级高铁众包策略与内部策略对比.html
[7] The Hyperloop is a lot older than you think
[7] Hyperloop的历史比你想象的要悠久得多
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2017/08/the-history-of-hyperloop-it-goes-back-much-further-than-you-might-think/
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2017/08/超级高铁的历史-它的发展历程比你想象的要久远得多/
[8] Musk’s Hyperloop math doesn’t add up
[8] 马斯克的Hyperloop数学并不合理
https://ggwash.org/view/32078/musks-hyperloop-math-doesnt-add-up
https://ggwash.org/view/32078/马斯克的超级高铁数学说不通
[9] Hyperloop TT gets Italy deal
[9] Hyperloop TT与意大利达成协议
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-05-13/elon-musks-hyperloop-vision-italian-deal-for-htt
[10] HyperloopTT-Powered Joint Venture ‘Hyper Transfer’ Begins in Italy
[10] HyperloopTT 投资的合资企业“Hyper Transfer”在意大利启动
[11] Musk claimed tunnels would “end traffic” (2016).
[11] 马斯克声称隧道将“结束交通拥堵”（2016）。
https://www.boringcompany.com/
[12] Elon Musk’s ‘Vegas Loop’ called a ‘death trap’
[12]埃隆•马斯克的“拉斯维加斯环线”被称为“死亡陷阱”
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-vegas-loop-traffic-b1988974.html
《独立报》网站报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆•马斯克在拉斯维加斯开设了名为“拉斯维加斯环路”的自动驾驶测试区域，该区域将允许公众进入，但需遵守特定规则
[13] Shock! The Boring Company: Musk’s underground high-speed rail dreams of leading the future transportation revolution
[13] 震惊！无聊公司：马斯克的地下高速铁路梦想引领未来交通革命
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1784341773994412237
百度百科：https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=178434177399441223[14] Two of Elon Musk’s Terrible Ideas Both Flopped in Las Vegas This Week
[14] 本周，埃隆•马斯克的两个糟糕想法在拉斯维加斯都失败了
https://www.curbed.com/2022/01/elon-musk-las-vegas-tunnel-ces.html

[15] Elon Musk’s Boring Company plans to expand its Lackluster Vegas tunnel project
[15]埃隆•马斯克的Boring公司计划扩大其拉斯维加斯隧道项目
https://hitechglitz.com/china/elon-musk-%e7%9a%84-boring-company-%e8%ae%a1%e5%88%92%e6%89%a9%e5%a4%a7%e5%85%b6-lackluster-vegas-%e9%9a%a7%e9%81%93%e9%a1%b9%e7%9b%ae/
[16] Musk Las Vegas underground highway broken promise?
[16] 马斯克拉斯维加斯地下公路破灭承诺？
https://www.sycaijing.com/news/details?id=95418
[17] Musk’s innovative plan to control the blockade was slapped in the face! The first underground tunnel was stuck in traffic as soon as it was put into operation
[17]马斯克控制封锁的创新计划被打脸！第一条地下隧道刚投入运营就堵车了
http://keji.smartjx.com/zx/2022/0213/25304164.html
[18] Musk Boring’s two major underground tunnel projects have been stalled for a long time
[18]马斯克Boring公司的两大地下隧道项目长期停滞
[18] Transferring SpaceX resources to support Boring profits Musk was questioned by investors
[18] 转移SpaceX资源支持Boring盈利马斯克遭投资者质疑
https://news.ifeng.com/c/7ijAHcDXF20
[20] Musk transfers money to dig tunnels? Space X investors are skeptical
[20] 马斯克转移资金挖隧道？Space X投资者持怀疑态度
https://www.d1ev.com/news/qiye/84329
[21] Elon Musk’s SpaceX investors question financial overlap with Boring Company
[21] Elon Musk的SpaceX投资者质疑其与Boring Company在财务上的重叠
https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/elon-musks-spacex-investors-question-financial-overlap-with-boring-co-report
[22] Tesla paid for Elon Musk’s Boring Company to dig a tunnel under Giga Texas, but why?
[22] 特斯拉为埃隆•马斯克的Boring Company支付了在德克萨斯州超级工厂地下挖掘隧道的费用，但这是为什么？

Tesla paid for Elon Musk’s Boring Company to dig a tunnel under Giga Texas, but why?

特斯拉支付埃隆•马斯克的无聊公司，在德克萨斯州吉加工厂下挖隧道，为什么

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